Rethinking Media Success: The Rise of Incrementality

I recently returned to Rise after spending a short stint on the client side of the marketing game. Since making my way back, there’s been one overarching trend I’ve been hearing from marketing leaders; brands are looking to make all media accountable for business outcomes, not just the typical best sellers. 

What We’re Hearing: 
The Rise of Incrementality in Media

In my conversations with CMOs and other heads of marketing, a recurring theme started to stand out: a focus on measuring the full funnel. The common refrain emerging has been: "We need to diversify our channel mix and understand the true value of our media spend." 

While direct response channels like paid search and affiliate marketing were capturing a large share of the budget for many organizations, there's a newfound emphasis on measuring marketing impact in a more holistic way. This shift is driven by an increasing need to not only have clear reporting that finance teams can understand but also make sure media dollars have a true impact on the business.

FROM PERFORMANCE TO INCREMENTALITY

During my first stint at Rise, most of the brands we talked to were heavily focused on performance media. Brands relied on direct response tactics, putting most of their resources into channels that promised clear, measurable results. However, there's a growing realization that understanding the broader impact of these investments is essential for long-term success. 

This reflects a significant shift from merely optimizing for last-click conversions to examining how each piece of the puzzle contributes to overall brand growth. Despite the continued importance of performance media, the market's demand for strategic depth is rising. Decision-makers are looking beyond immediate returns and examining how investments influence brand perception, customer journeys, and ultimately, revenue growth.

Brands are altering their priorities by acknowledging that while direct response remains important, there’s immense value in understanding media's incremental impact. This holistic approach not only supports current marketing efforts but lays the groundwork for future growth.

Understanding the Shift: Why Incrementality Now?

Returning to Rise has given me fresh insights into the evolving landscape of media strategy. Over the past few years, I've witnessed firsthand the forces driving the industry's shift toward prioritizing incrementality. To start, the industry has withstood significant upheavals that made it more challenging for marketers to rely on consistent data. 

KEY DISRUPTORS

iOS 14 UPDATE: A GAME CHANGER

The infamous iOS 14 update changed the game for advertisers, particularly those relying on the media platforms like Facebook for their tracking and performance. I saw brands grappling with sudden drops in return, which led to challenging conversations about the reliability of performance metrics. This disruption highlighted the need for more robust measurement methods that consider the entire customer journey, rather than taking each platform’s word on reporting their performance. While this change seemed like one in an endless stream of changes, it fundamentally undermined the trust a lot of marketers had in the metrics they were reporting.

GA4 TRANSITION: REDEFINING MEASUREMENT 

An equally impactful but lesser discussed event was Google’s transition from Google Analytics to Google Analytics 4 (GA4). As a marketer, I experienced the unease GA4 caused firsthand as many brands felt their longtime "source of truth" was slipping away. Universal Analytics' deprecation meant that familiar metrics were changing, and businesses needed new ways to evaluate their strategies' effectiveness.

THE AFTER EFFECTS

MEASUREMENT NIHILISM

For those of us who live and breathe media, these changes seem like they occurred in the distant past, but the reality is we’re still dealing with the aftershocks today. In our previous world, marketing teams had a clean and simple agreement with finance teams. Marketing would provide tidy, reliable performance reporting that justified their budgets to finance, and in return push their media dollars to channels that showed the highest ROAS. Any brand media was labelled ‘non-performance’, done and done.

With the key platform disruptions though, many marketers no longer had confidence in the numbers they were reporting to finance. This led to a silent resignation to the system they built, but the arrangement was only tenable for so long. 

The rise of incrementality is now no longer theoretical. It's a practical response to industry disruptions, privacy concerns, and technological possibilities — all driven by the need for deeper, more reliable insights. Marketers need to reevaluate their measurement tools, retake the conversation, and justify investment in channels they know drive true brand growth.

Driving to Incrementality

Now that we know the historical context and current realities of the incrementality shift, we are ready to overcome the significant obstacles this change presents for brands striving to adapt. The Rise approach is made up of four necessities to help brands not only adapt to but thrive during the rise of incrementality.

1.    Input-Ready Data

The first hurdle brands often encounter is ensuring their data is input-ready. Given the complexity of today’s privacy regulations and growing constraints from platform-side limitations, obtaining clean, reliable data is more challenging than ever. To understand true incremental lift, you need to be able to segment your media performance by time and location, which can be easier said than done. We focus on modeling data to work within these limitations, ensuring it’s actionable.

2.    Trustworthy Models

Once reliable data is in place, the next challenge is to construct models that engender trust among stakeholders. It’s essential for these models to be both technically robust and transparent, allowing decision-makers throughout the organization to understand and rely on them. The modeled performance needs to not only meet the standards of our data science team but also pass the ‘eye test.’ Marketers need to be able to look at the reporting and say, "This is about what I expect." Bill James, the baseball statistician, has a rule that a new metric should tell you 80% of what you expect, and 20% should be novel insights. A corollary of this rule applies to marketing measurement as well.

3.    Flexible and Strategic Mindset

Even with robust models, the real test lies in using them effectively to inform strategic decisions. The shift towards an incrementality-focused mindset can only reap benefits if these models are actively employed to guide strategic choices. This involves executive and stakeholder change management and sometimes requires a leap of faith to change the KPIs you are using to make decisions.

4.    Tactical Media Effectiveness Model (TMEM)

Rise’s Tactical Media Effectiveness (TMEM) model plays a pivotal role in our approach to addressing these challenges. As our proprietary methodology, TMEM measures incrementality on a monthly basis to understand lift. This model captures the incremental lift generated by their media investments, providing critical insights into which tactics are truly driving growth. The use of TMEM allows brands to move beyond mere retrospective analysis, offering continuous insights that inform agile decision-making and strategic adjustments.

Evolve, Innovate, Succeed

Navigating the rise of incrementality is undoubtedly challenging, but it is a necessary evolution for achieving long-term success in today’s media environment. We are committed to guiding our clients through these hurdles, turning challenges into opportunities for innovation and growth. By focusing on rigorous data preparation, transparent model-building, and empowering decisions through our TMEM model, we help brands unlock their full potential. Contact us today to learn more.